The White Sox did what they said they’d do this winter, going out and adding a pair of arms to the starting rotation.
The big splash came Saturday night, with reports of an agreement between the team and free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel. The 2015 Cy Young winner and 2017 World Series winner adds some serious heft to a starting staff that when the offseason began had an All-Star ace and a lot of question marks.
Keuchel brings a lot more than just short-term stability, though that’s a valuable attribute to have while the youngsters around him figure out just how good they’ll be at the major league level. Gio Gonzalez, the other veteran southpaw joining this group, should provide some of the same, even if not at the same level as Keuchel. Keuchel, meanwhile, is also now a part of the long-term planning on the South Side, and you can ink his name into the rotation for at least the next three seasons.
So what does the 2020 rotation look like with Keuchel and Gonzalez included? The best answer is this: It depends on when in 2020 you’re asking about.
On Opening Day, things should be pretty straightforward. Lucas Giolito and Keuchel will be the top two starters, though which gets the ball in the March 26 opener at The Rate could be a fun spring debate: Does Rick Rebteria reward Giolito for his All-Star season in 2019 or cement Keuchel’s role as a veteran model for the rest of the staff? It doesn’t really matter. Both are good, and both will pitch in the first two games of the 2020 season against the Kansas City Royals.
Behind Giolito and Keuchel will come Gonzalez, Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease in some order. The best-case scenario is that Lopez finds the consistency he could not during a rough 2019 and Cease quickly emerges from the growing pains of his first taste of the majors. If they do that and Gonzalez is rapidly the team’s fifth starter, that counts as one of those good problems to have Rick Hahn is always talking about.
But at some point, and perhaps not too deep into what is shaping up more and more to be a campaign with playoff expectations, Michael Kopech will join the starting staff. The White Sox will limit him in some capacity as he returns from Tommy John surgery. Health is not the concern as much as workload on his young arm. And remember, his next appearance in a big league game will be only his fifth. The team is waiting until spring training to decide exactly what the limiting will look like. Skipping starts or using him out of the bullpen on occasion are options. But the White Sox envision Kopech making his biggest contributions as a member of the rotation, and if the games are meaningful come September, they could really want him there.
There are three other pitchers currently in recovery mode after their own Tommy John surgeries. While it might be unrealistic to expect them to make the same kind of impact as even Kopech, they could play a role of some sort in 2020. Carlos Rodon, Dane Dunning and Jimmy Lambert all would have made significant contributions in 2019 if not for their injuries, and when their recoveries are over, they could very well make those contributions in 2020. But what those will look like — and if they’ll be ready to do so — remain a mystery for now.
Given how the 2019 season played out from the standpoint of starting-pitching depth (there was hardly any), expect more signings like the minor league deal the White Sox recently gave Ross Detwiler. Fans might not have been enamored with that news, nor will they be happy to hear that more spring-training signings like Ervin Santana could be a possibility. But moves like those build the necessary depth for injuries and whatnot. The South Siders are not likely to sign another big-name pitcher to a multi-year deal after giving one to Keuchel, especially considering all the long-term options discussed to this point. More little signings like the Santana and Detwiler ones are far more likely. Ideally, no one gets hurt and everyone pitches well. But that’s a rarity, and it’s why those little signings are made.
One other name to keep in the back of your mind is Jonathan Stiever, who, after Kopech and Dunning graduate from prospect status, will be the organization’s highest rated pitching prospect. He killed it last year at Class A Winston-Salem, with a 2.15 ERA in a dozen starts. He was a fifth-round pick in 2018 and hasn’t pitched above A-ball, so putting expectations on him to reach the major league rotation in 2020 would be unfair. But if he’s dealing and the White Sox are in a pennant race? Never say never.
So think about this: The White Sox will start the 2020 season with three pitchers in the rotation who weren’t in the rotation when the 2019 season started. By midseason, there could be more change. By the end of the season, perhaps even more new faces.
Of course, question marks remain. Will Giolito’s transformation be permanent? Will Lopez finally find that consistency — and if he doesn’t, how long will he get to find it? Will Cease shake whatever led him to a 5.79 ERA last season? Will Kopech be the same pitcher that was promised prior to his Tommy John surgery? Will Rodon, Dunning and Lambert be able to contribute?
But with Keuchel and Gonzalez aboard, there is much added stability. And the potential exists for the youngsters to form a menacing group. A championship rotation? It’s too early to say at this point. But if all goes well, it’s possible.
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December 23, 2019 at 04:06AM
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