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Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Bills Today | What the Bills need to do to make a deep playoff run - BuffaloBills.com

1. What the Bills need to do to make a deep playoff run

ESPN writer Bill Barnwell looked into the AFC playoff picture, specifically the wild-card race, explaining why the Bills have a 95.9% chance of clinching a spot.

Chance to make the playoffs: 95.9%
Projected playoff matchup: at Texans

While FPI projects the Bills to wind up as the 5-seed nearly 69% of the time in its simulations, the Bills could still move up, down or out of the playoff picture. They still have a 1.3% chance of winning the AFC East, although it would take a victory over the Patriots in Foxborough, two more wins over the Steelers and Jets, and an upset by either the Bengals or Dolphins over the Patriots. If Ryan Fitzpatrick pulls out a victory over the Pats and nets the Bills their first postseason home game since 1996, the Bills should build a statue of their former starting quarterback.

Barnwell credits the defense for keeping it close against the best offense in the league on Sunday.

The Bills are typically willing to cede yards on the ground to stop the pass and rank 22nd in rush defense DVOA, but it was awesome to see them work in lockstep and communicate as they dealt with the many challenges Jackson presents an opposing defense. Coordinator Leslie Frazier & Co. don't often use veterans like Star Lotulelei and Lorenzo Alexander for the majority of snaps, so it was fun to see those guys stand out in larger roles against a run-heavy attack.

To make an appearance in the playoffs that includes wins, Barnwell says the Bills need Allen to improve against pass pressure.

Allen won't have much time to get back on track. He just lost to the Ravens, who have the league's best pressure rate. Over the next two weeks, he goes up against the Steelers and Patriots, who each rank in the top seven in pressure rate, before finishing up with the Jets. If the Bills continue on their present track and then upset the Texans or Chiefs in the wild-card round, they'll have a likely rematch with the Patriots or Ravens looming in the divisional round. Allen has grown, but to make a deep playoff run, the Bills need him to take another step forward and thrive against pass pressure.

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Bills Today | What the Bills need to do to make a deep playoff run - BuffaloBills.com
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