Will the Cowboys make the playoffs? - The Dallas Morning News

The Cowboys’ attempt at a statement win failed in the wretched conditions of Gillette Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Dallas’ 13-9 loss to New England delivered criticism from owner Jerry Jones, fans and the media.

With five games remaining in the regular season, the Cowboys remain in first place in the NFC East and control their fate in terms of a postseason berth.

The good news is two analytics sites believe the Cowboys will make the playoffs.

ESPN’s NFL Football Power Index gives the Cowboys a 75.3% chance to reach the postseason and a 73.8% chance to win the division.

The slumping Eagles, with a two-game losing streak and a quarterback in Carson Wentz who will play the rest of the season with a bruised middle finger on his throwing hand, are just a game out of first.

The Eagles’ probability to reach the postseason is just 26.6%, according to ESPN’s formulas, and 26.2% to win the division.

FiveThirtyEight has the Cowboys with lower percentages to make the postseason. FiveThirtyEight projects the Cowboys have a 64% chance of making the postseason and a 63% chance of the division title.

Philadelphia’s chances increase slightly, at 37%, to win the division or make the playoffs.

The Cowboys have things in their favor, but in the strange world of the NFL, anything can happen -- including a sudden collapse.

We look at three reasons why the Cowboys will and won’t make the postseason.

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Why the Cowboys will make the playoffs

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) throws a pass during the second quarter of an NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium on Sunday, Oct. 20, 2019, in Arlington.(Smiley N. Pool / Staff Photographer)

Offense: Despite not scoring a touchdown against the Patriots, the Cowboys still maintain the NFL’s top offense (433.4 yards per game) with Dak Prescott also leading the league in passing yards (3,433). The weather conditions played a role in the Cowboys’ struggles, but overall this offense is fantastic. Sure, the running game isn’t what many expect, but last season Ezekiel Elliott averaged 96.2 yards per game over the final five weeks of the season. Elliott may be heating up now and if that’s the case, Jason Garrett will get the balance he wants.

Robert Quinn: The best part of the Cowboys’ defense is Robert Quinn, and he’s not eligible for the Pro Bowl. The Cowboys defensive end has a team-leading 9.5 sacks and continues to cause problems for opposing tackles. Offensive lines are taking DeMarcus Lawrence out with double-teams and chip blocks, enabling Quinn to take advantage of one-on-one opportunities. Imagine what Quinn’s numbers would be if he hadn’t missed the first two weeks of the season for a PEDs suspension, which makes him ineligible for the Pro Bowl.

The Eagles: It seems the NFC East title will come down to a Dec. 22 game at The Linc against the Eagles. If you thought the Cowboys had issues, check out the Eagles: Wentz has a sore hand, starting receivers Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor are battling injuries, and the offense has scored 19 points the past two games. The Eagles are a mess right now. If the Cowboys can knock them off, it’s all good.

Why the Cowboys will miss the playoffs

Dallas Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett watches his team play the New York Jets during the first half at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, Sunday, October 13, 2019. (Tom Fox/The Dallas Morning News)(Tom Fox / Staff Photographer)

Defense: Dallas’ defense contained Tom Brady, who may be showing his age more than anything else, in the loss. It was still a spirited performance by a defense that’s struggled to find consistency. Yet that inconsistency is the root of where this team stands right now. The defense’s inability to create turnovers and stop the run have hurt them all season. Thanksgiving Day, they face the Bills, who have the fifth-best rushing attack (139.2) in the NFL. Dallas’ defense allows 104.8 yards per game and there’s no guarantee it will slow the Bills down.

The schedule: The Cowboys have not beaten a team with a winning record this season. This is the same team that lost to the then-winless New York Jets, a game that was downplayed by Jerry Jones at the time. In the next five weeks, the Cowboys face two opponents with winning records -- the Bills and LA Rams. If this current trend continues, expect the Cowboys to lose those games. And who knows how the Cowboys will respond in Chicago for a Thursday night game in the cold? The Bears game is sandwiched between the Bills and Rams contests. Will the Cowboys enter the Eagles game on a four-game losing streak?

Coaching: Jerry Jones pointed this out pretty clearly after the Patriots loss: Whether it’s the special teams unit’s failure to do the simple things, like field a kickoff or block a star special teams player, coaching has been lacking in too many areas. The Cowboys are not good at creating turnovers. Does the coaching staff do enough in this area? The Cowboys have been outscored 69-40 in the first quarter of games in 2019. These slow starts stem from a lack of preparation in some cases and lack of execution. Playing behind takes a lot out of a team and if this continues, the Cowboys may be watching the postseason from home.

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