Life in the NFL playoffs isn't easy for wild-card teams.
Beyond the difficulty of having to play three games to reach the Super Bowl, the division runner-ups have to prepare to play the entire postseason on the road. It's little wonder, then, that no wild-card team has reached the final game since the Baltimore Ravens won it all in the 2012 season. Since the NFL expanded the postseason format in 1990, 79.3% of teams that have reached the Super Bowl have had a first-round bye.
With all that in mind, we asked reporters and editors from USA TODAY Sports and the USA TODAY Network: Which wild-card team has the best chance of making a deep playoff run?
Their answers:
Nancy Armour
Don’t get me wrong. I think the Tennessee Titans have a great chance to upset the New England Patriots on Saturday. Mike Vrabel has made all the right moves down the stretch, and even New England’s defense is going to struggle to contain a healthy and motivated Derrick Henry. Plus, these aren’t the Tom Brady and Patriots of old and, even if they were, Vrabel is one of the few people who wouldn’t be intimated by that.
I also like Buffalo, and think the Bills are one of the more underrated teams in the league. Give Josh Allen another year, and I think there’s going to be a big – and lasting – shakeup in the AFC East.
That said, I think Baltimore and Kansas City are the best two teams still playing, and I don’t like the matchups of them against, well, anybody. Especially with an extra week to get healthy and ready for their divisional-round opponent. Put Tennessee and Buffalo in the NFC, and it might be a different story. But Baltimore is the most versatile team there is, and Kansas City is peaking at the right time. Having to play either of them is like running into a buzzsaw.
A few weeks ago, I might have said Seattle. But the Seahawks are simply too banged up for an extended run.
Jarrett Bell
I know I’m contradicting myself because I didn’t take them in our weekly picks, but the Seattle Seahawks probably have the best chance of all of the wild-card teams. I went back and forth about whether to pick them as my upset of the week.
The Seahawks were just inches away from beating the No. 1 seed 49ers. They have a really good defense, they believe in balance on offense, and with Russell Wilson, they always have a chance. He has a level of proven special that the other quarterbacks in the wild card round do not. Those are all elements you have to have to pull off upsets this time of year. I’m just not sure that the depth at running back and lack of experience at the skill positions are enough for the Seahawks as they have to play these road playoff games, and that’s why they might fall short.
Nate Davis
I personally define a “deep playoff run” as reaching the conference championship game, at minimum. So as much as I like the Titans and Bills – especially the Titans – I don’t foresee either forging a “deep” run, especially because that would require Tennessee to beat the Patriots and Ravens. That leaves me with the Vikings and Seahawks. I like Minnesota when Dalvin Cook is healthy, believe Kirk Cousins is still a bit unfairly lampooned and have high regard for the defense. But I just can’t see the Vikes knocking off both the Saints and 49ers. So I’m left with Seattle – a team I’m on record having trust issues with given their suspect defense and constant high-wire act.
Jori Epstein
The Seahawks face a resilient-but-banged-up Eagles team. Philadelphia quarterback Carson Wentz (27 TDs, 7 INTs) has elevated his team. But he and coach Doug Pederson won’t be able to outplay a Seattle team that has gritted out a 7-1 road record. One key stat Wentz should beware: The Seattle defense forced 18 fumbles in the regular season, second most in the league. Also second most in the league: the 19 fumbles Wentz surrendered. Should the Seahawks advance to a divisional-round game in San Francisco (assuming the Saints beat the Vikings), they’ve proven the ability to win there.
Lorenzo Reyes
My answer is based on two things: talent and experience. The Seahawks, even with a series of recent injuries, have both. Russell Wilson is the lone quarterback of the four wild-card squads to have won a Super Bowl. Pete Carroll is the lone coach of the four to have done the same. Wilson was an MVP candidate for the majority of the season until Lamar Jackson really took off. Players like Bobby Wagner, Jadeveon Clowney, and other highlight the roster. The Seahawks also happen to have the best record (11-5) of any of the wild card teams.
Still, the Seahawks have some concerning characteristics they need to fix. They often fall into early deficits. They often struggle to put teams away. Their games many times seem closer than they need to be. For Seattle to make a run, it will need to play more complete games and emphasize its strengths – forcing turnovers and protecting the football, riding a steady rushing game, and letting Wilson improvise and keep his eyes downfield to make plays in the passing game.
Tom Schad
While I think people are sleeping on Buffalo a bit, I've got to go with Seattle here. The Seahawks are technically the No. 5 seed in the NFC, but they have a very plausible path to the NFC championship game. They're favored on the road this weekend against Philadelphia, and then they'd likely face San Francisco, with whom they've been neck and neck all year. Nothing comes easy in the playoffs, obviously, but with a veteran roster and Russell Wilson at the helm, Seattle has as good a chance as any team of making a run.
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